The collapse of the Assad regime in the final months of 2024 brought about a major development in Syria's political and security landscape, paving the way for the country to enter a new phase with entirely different characteristics. These developments, coinciding with the emergence of new actors such as Turkey and its affiliated paramilitary groups, have brought both opportunities and challenges for the future of the country and for groups inspired by the Muslim Brotherhood, which have sought power in some Islamic countries over the past years.
Historical experience shows that these groups have always tried to redefine themselves and play an active role in politics in response to environmental changes. In this context, the actions of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and its leader, Mohammed al-Golani, who remain on the UN's list of terrorist organizations, also demonstrate a similar effort to shift from a paramilitary group to a political institution.
Upcoming challenges
The failed experiences in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya have led to groups that, in recent years, have been inspired by similar ideologies and sought to gain power in other Islamic countries, now facing a kind of political illegitimacy due to the decline in public trust. In Syria, groups like Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham have attempted to solidify their position with serious assistance from countries like Qatar and Turkey, while managing political changes, but they still face criticisms from jihadist groups and influential local individuals.
Moreover, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, like similar groups in other countries, is ensnared in internal competitions. While it tries to balance the interests of its like-minded members internally and manage the international environment, which perceives them as extremist, it has yet to achieve significant success. The existence of ideological and tactical differences among various groups, including between jihadists and moderate Islamists, as seen in other similar experiences, has hindered effective unity.
Future outlook
Groups that currently hold power in Syria, if they fail to gain public support and resolve internal differences, will likely decline, similar to experiences in other countries, potentially adding another failed experience to the record of this ideology.
However, given the significant investment by Turkey and Qatar in creating and advancing the conditions for the success of these groups in post-Assad Syria, one notable possibility is that if internal differences among the main power factions decrease, these groups might agree to a form of guided democracy, allowing limited participation by other actors in the future political system of the country. This could lead to less ideological governance and reduced sensitivities both domestically and internationally, making it more feasible to manage the future government in Syria.
Naturally, the formation of this trend will face serious challenges due to the diversity of groups present in Syria and their varying political and ideological approaches. External interventions and their influence on each of these groups can further complicate the political and security environment in Syria. In a situation where instability is the primary influencing factor in any action, some groups may resort to violence to regain power, which could lead to increased unrest and threats to the internal environment of Syria and potentially the region as well.
Due to the political, cultural, and social fabric of Syrian society, as well as the existing ethnic and religious dynamics, the future of Syrian politics will be heavily influenced by internal competition between Islamist and secular groups, ethnic and religious tensions, and the role of external actors. Groups like Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham have attempted to transform from a paramilitary group to a political actor by changing their positions; however, they still face internal criticism and international accusations. On the other hand, the possibility of Syria's fragmentation into regions controlled by different groups, particularly in the north under Turkish and Kurdish influence, is another scenario some analysts point to.
Foreign investment and efforts to establish a model of effective governance in controlled areas could help these groups regain legitimacy. However, if they fail to manage internal differences or gain public support, they may face a similar fate to similar movements in Egypt and Libya, losing their influence.
NOURNEWS